Carlo
The team behind Carlo. We build tools to help you think clearly about uncertainty and make better decisions under risk.
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Jan 2025
Curated Models
Finance
Retirement Savings Projection Model
Determine the trajectory of savings in real terms to assess retirement readiness at age 55.
SaaS Subscriber and LTV Analysis
Determine the lifetime value per customer and project subscriber growth from a starting base.
Convertible Note Valuation Model
Determine the expected value of a convertible note at the next round given uncertainty in valuation, cap, and discount.
60/40 Portfolio Return Model
To estimate the 10-year expected return and growth trajectory of a diversified 60/40 stock/bond portfolio accounting for volatility.
Startup Revenue Valuation Model
Estimate startup valuation after 36 months of growth and uncertainty.
Basic FIRE Retirement Model
Determine if current savings and contribution levels will reach the FIRE target over 30 years.
Business
Headcount and Revenue Growth Model
To project the headcount trajectory and final revenue baseline based on uncertain hiring rates and revenue per employee benchmarks.
Price Elasticity Revenue Impact
How does changing price affect total revenue under various demand elasticity scenarios and external market shifts?
Marketplace Revenue Forecast
Forecast monthly revenue trajectory and ending revenue for a marketplace over 36 months.
Months to Profitability Model
Project the monthly revenue and expense trajectory to determine when the business reaches profitability.
Sales Revenue Forecast Model
Forecast total sales revenue based on pipeline value, deal size, and conversion rates.
Operations
Warehouse Staffing Optimization
Determine the cumulative operational cost over 30 days based on staff efficiency and order volume.
Cost of Quality Assessment
Calculate the total cost of quality by combining inspection appraisal costs and the external failure costs from missed defects.
Vendor Total Cost of Ownership
Calculate the total cost of ownership for a vendor contract including setup, annual fees, and switching costs over an uncertain duration.
Data & Analytics
Customer Segmentation Lift Model
Determine the total customer conversions resulting from a segmentation-driven marketing campaign considering lift and cluster quality.
Survey Sample Size Calculator
Determine the required survey sample size when population variance and acceptable margin of error are uncertain.
A/B Test Sample Size Calculator
Determine the required sample size per variation for an A/B test given uncertainty in baseline performance and desired sensitivity.
Product
Pricing A/B Test Revenue Model
Determine whether switching to an annual pricing model generates more immediate revenue than a monthly model based on A/B test conversion and WTP.
Product-Market Fit Scoring Model
Determine the probability and score of achieving product-market fit based on NPS and cohort retention data.
Referral Program ROI Model
Determine the ROI of a referral program considering uncertain invitation rates and variable user quality.
Onboarding Activation Impact Model
Determine how reducing onboarding steps impacts user activation rates by modeling drop-off per step.
Freemium Conversion Revenue Model
Estimate the total revenue potential from a freemium user base based on conversion uncertainty.
Engineering
Structural Safety Factor Analysis
Determine the probability that a structural component will maintain a safety factor above the target given uncertainties in material properties and loads.
Server Load Performance Model
Estimate server response time in milliseconds based on user load and cache efficiency.
On-Call Incident Cost Model
Estimate the total monthly financial cost of on-call incident resolution.
Microservices Migration Cost Model
Determine the additional cost premium of migrating to a microservices architecture given uncertainties in refactoring scope.
System Redundancy ROI Model
Compare the financial impact of status-quo downtime versus investing in system redundancy.
CI/CD Pipeline Efficiency Model
To model the cumulative number of successful software deployments over a one-year period accounting for build failures and deployment frequency.
Research
Clinical Trial Statistical Power Model
Determine the probability of detecting a treatment effect (statistical power) given uncertainty in drug efficacy and patient adherence.
Grant Success Probability Model
Calculate the cumulative probability of securing at least one grant based on reviewer score distributions and a fixed number of submissions.
Clinical Trial Sample Size Model
Determine the total number of participants required for a clinical trial accounting for effect size uncertainty and dropout risk.
Research Publication Timeline
Estimate the total duration of the research publication process in weeks considering multiple review and revision cycles.
Other
Tournament Win Probability Model
Determine the probability of winning a poker tournament given player skill vs a varying distribution of opponent skills.
Meetings That Could Be Emails Model
Calculate the annual number of meetings that should have been emails based on corporate culture.
Commute Time Uncertainty Model
To estimate the expected commute time by accounting for the compounding effects of traffic congestion and weather conditions.
Freelance vs Full-Time Income Comparison
Compare the total annual compensation of freelance work versus full-time employment considering utilization and benefits.
Home Renovation Budget Model
Calculate the total expected home renovation budget considering contractor price fluctuations and unforeseen repair costs.
Monte Carlo Pi Estimation
Estimate the value of Pi using a Monte Carlo area-ratio method (Buffon's needle/Circle quadrant).