Retirement Savings Projection Model
350
Determine the trajectory of savings in real terms to assess retirement readiness at age 55.
NOTEAbout This Model
## Determine the trajectory of savings in real terms to assess retirement readiness at age 55. This model estimates **Portfolio Trajectory Real** based on uncertain inputs: Investment Return Rate, Inflation Rate, Annual Contribution. Fixed values: Initial Savings Balance. Run the simulation to see the distribution of possible outcomes.
VARIABLEInvestment Return Rate
beta(2, 18.6)
Nominal annual return from a balanced portfolio.
investment_return_rate
VARIABLEInflation Rate
beta(2, 19.5)
Long-term annual inflation rate affecting purchasing power.
inflation_rate
VARIABLEAnnual Contribution
triangular(1.2e+4, 3.0e+4, 4.8e+4)
Annual amount saved for retirement (e.g. $1k-$4k per month).
annual_contribution
CONSTANTInitial Savings Balance
10000
Starting portfolio balance at year zero.
initial_savings_balance
TIME SERIESPortfolio Trajectory Real
prev * (1 + (((1 + investment_return_rate) / (1 + inflation_rate)) - 1)) + annual_contribution
12 months
from initial_savings_balance
Projected growth of the portfolio in real dollars (inflation-adjusted) over 30 years.
portfolio_trajectory_real
OUTPUTPortfolio Trajectory Real
portfolio_trajectory_real
Inflation-adjusted portfolio value over your savings horizon. The spread captures uncertainty in real returns and contributions—the median line is your most likely retirement balance.
What is Carlo?
Carlo is a visual tool for Monte Carlo simulation. Model uncertainty by dragging probability distributions, connecting them visually, and running thousands of scenarios instantly.