Sales Revenue Forecast Model
10
Forecast total sales revenue based on pipeline value, deal size, and conversion rates.
NOTEAbout This Model
## Forecast total sales revenue based on pipeline value, deal size, and conversion rates. This model estimates **Forecasted Revenue** based on uncertain inputs: Pipeline Value, Conversion Rate, Average Deal Size. Run the simulation to see the distribution of possible outcomes.
VARIABLEPipeline Value
triangular(1.0e+5, 5.5e+5, 1.0e+6)
Total dollar value of all open opportunities in the CRM.
pipeline_value
VARIABLEAverage Deal Size
triangular(5000, 1.5e+4, 2.5e+4)
The typical value of a single closed contract.
average_deal_size
VARIABLEConversion Rate
beta(3, 17)
Historical probability of a pipeline opportunity closing successfully (5% to 25%).
conversion_rate
FORMULAEstimated Deals
(pipeline_value / average_deal_size) * conversion_rate
Number of estimated wins based on total pipeline divided by average deal size, multiplied by conversion probability.
estimated_deals
FORMULAForecasted Revenue
estimated_deals * average_deal_size
Total forecasted sales revenue.
forecasted_revenue
OUTPUTForecasted Revenue
forecasted_revenue
Forecasted total revenue based on deal pipeline and win rates. The distribution captures uncertainty in close rates and deal sizes, helping set realistic targets.
What is Carlo?
Carlo is a visual tool for Monte Carlo simulation. Model uncertainty by dragging probability distributions, connecting them visually, and running thousands of scenarios instantly.