Headcount and Revenue Growth Model
10
To project the headcount trajectory and final revenue baseline based on uncertain hiring rates and revenue per employee benchmarks.
NOTEAbout This Model
## To project the headcount trajectory and final revenue baseline based on uncertain hiring rates and revenue per employee benchmarks. This model estimates **Headcount Trajectory** based on uncertain inputs: Initial Headcount, Monthly Growth Rate, Revenue Per Employee Benchmark. Run the simulation to see the distribution of possible outcomes.
VARIABLEMonthly Growth Rate
beta(2, 19.4)
Net monthly growth in staff (hiring minus churn), set to positive to match business growth scenarios.
monthly_growth_rate
VARIABLEInitial Headcount
poisson(55)
Current baseline staff size before growth begins.
initial_headcount
TIME SERIESHeadcount Trajectory
prev * (1 + monthly_growth_rate)
12 months
from initial_headcount
Monthly headcount trajectory over 3 years.
headcount_trajectory
OUTPUTHeadcount Trajectory
headcount_trajectory
Your projected headcount over time. The spread shows how hiring uncertainty compounds—wide fans mean small changes in monthly growth rate dramatically affect team size.
What is Carlo?
Carlo is a visual tool for Monte Carlo simulation. Model uncertainty by dragging probability distributions, connecting them visually, and running thousands of scenarios instantly.