Startup Revenue Valuation Model
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Estimate startup valuation after 36 months of growth and uncertainty.
NOTEAbout This Model
## Estimate startup valuation after 36 months of growth and uncertainty. This model estimates **Revenue Trajectory** based on uncertain inputs: Revenue Growth Rate, Initial Revenue, Comparable Multiple Range. Run the simulation to see the distribution of possible outcomes.
VARIABLERevenue Growth Rate
beta(2, 18.4)
Expected annual revenue growth rate (modeled as monthly compounding).
revenue_growth_rate
VARIABLEInitial Revenue
triangular(1000, 5.1e+4, 1.0e+5)
Starting monthly recurring revenue (MRR).
initial_revenue
TIME SERIESRevenue Trajectory
prev * (1 + (revenue_growth_rate / 12))
12 months
from initial_revenue
Monthly revenue trajectory based on compounded growth.
revenue_trajectory
OUTPUTRevenue Trajectory
revenue_trajectory
Monthly revenue trajectory based on compounded growth. The distribution widens over time as growth rate uncertainty compounds, showing the range between conservative and aggressive scenarios.
What is Carlo?
Carlo is a visual tool for Monte Carlo simulation. Model uncertainty by dragging probability distributions, connecting them visually, and running thousands of scenarios instantly.