Marketplace Revenue Forecast
20
Forecast monthly revenue trajectory and ending revenue for a marketplace over 36 months.
NOTEAbout This Model
## Forecast monthly revenue trajectory and ending revenue for a marketplace over 36 months. This model estimates **Monthly Revenue Trajectory** based on uncertain inputs: Monthly GMV Growth, Initial GMV, Take Rate. Fixed values: Initial Monthly Revenue. Run the simulation to see the distribution of possible outcomes.
VARIABLEMonthly GMV Growth
beta(2, 18.9)
Monthly GMV growth typically ranges from 1% to 10% for scaling marketplaces.
monthly_gmv_growth
CONSTANTInitial Monthly Revenue
10000
Starting monthly revenue based on initial GMV and take rate.
initial_monthly_revenue
TIME SERIESMonthly Revenue Trajectory
prev * (1 + monthly_gmv_growth)
12 months
from initial_monthly_revenue
Monthly revenue trajectory based on growing GMV and the marketplace take rate.
monthly_revenue_trajectory
OUTPUTMonthly Revenue Trajectory
monthly_revenue_trajectory
Projected monthly revenue based on GMV growth. The distribution reflects how compounding growth uncertainty widens over time—useful for budgeting conservative vs. optimistic scenarios.
What is Carlo?
Carlo is a visual tool for Monte Carlo simulation. Model uncertainty by dragging probability distributions, connecting them visually, and running thousands of scenarios instantly.