SaaS Subscriber and LTV Analysis
30
Determine the lifetime value per customer and project subscriber growth from a starting base.
NOTEAbout This Model
## Determine the lifetime value per customer and project subscriber growth from a starting base. This model estimates **Customer Growth Path** based on uncertain inputs: Monthly Churn Rate, Monthly Revenue Per User, Variable Cost Per User. Fixed values: Initial Subscriber Base. Run the simulation to see the distribution of possible outcomes.
VARIABLEMonthly Churn Rate
beta(3, 18.8)
Monthly churn rate between 2% and 10%. Upper bound kept below 1.0.
monthly_churn_rate
CONSTANTInitial Subscriber Base
250
Target number of customers to start the projection from.
initial_subscriber_base
TIME SERIESCustomer Growth Path
max(0, prev * (1 - monthly_churn_rate) + monthly_new_customers)
12 months
from initial_subscriber_base
Projected customer count trajectory assuming 50 net new activations per month after churn.
customer_growth_path
OUTPUTCustomer Growth Path
customer_growth_path
Projected active subscriber count over time, accounting for churn and new customer acquisition. Declining trajectories signal churn exceeds growth—a critical product health indicator.
CONSTANTMonthly New Customers
50
Average net new customer activations per month (excluding churn).
monthly_new_customers
What is Carlo?
Carlo is a visual tool for Monte Carlo simulation. Model uncertainty by dragging probability distributions, connecting them visually, and running thousands of scenarios instantly.