Months to Profitability Model
10
Project the monthly revenue and expense trajectory to determine when the business reaches profitability.
NOTEAbout This Model
## Project the monthly revenue and expense trajectory to determine when the business reaches profitability. This model estimates **Monthly Cash Flow Path** based on uncertain inputs: Initial Net Cash Flow, Monthly Growth Rate, Monthly Expenses. Run the simulation to see the distribution of possible outcomes.
VARIABLEMonthly Expenses
triangular(2.0e+4, 3.6e+5, 7.0e+5)
Total monthly operating expenses (fixed + variable).
monthly_expenses
VARIABLEMonthly Growth Rate
beta(2.2, 17.8)
Monthly revenue growth rate. Expressed as decimal (0.05 = 5%).
monthly_growth_rate
VARIABLEInitial Net Cash Flow
triangular(-5.0e+5, -2.3e+5, 5.0e+4)
Current starting monthly net cash flow (revenue minus total expenses). Negative implies burning cash.
initial_net_cash_flow
TIME SERIESMonthly Cash Flow Path
(prev + monthly_expenses) * (1 + monthly_growth_rate) - monthly_expenses
12 months
from initial_net_cash_flow
Monthly net cash flow trajectory. Revenue grows monthly while expenses are held static. Profitability is reached when value > 0.
monthly_cash_flow_path
OUTPUTMonthly Cash Flow Path
monthly_cash_flow_path
Monthly net cash flow trajectory. When the curve crosses zero, the business reaches profitability. The spread shows the range of possible timelines given revenue growth and expense uncertainty.
What is Carlo?
Carlo is a visual tool for Monte Carlo simulation. Model uncertainty by dragging probability distributions, connecting them visually, and running thousands of scenarios instantly.