Product Demand Forecast
10416
Forecast demand with seasonal variation and market uncertainty
NOTEModel Overview
📦 DEMAND FORECAST
Models product demand:
• Base market size
• Seasonal multiplier
• Market share uncertainty
CONSTANTBase Market
1000000
Total addressable market
market_size
VARIABLEMarket Share
beta
Expected ~10% share
market_share
VARIABLESeasonal Factor
triangular
Q4 peak, Q1 low
seasonal
FORMULABase Demand
market_size * market_share
Before seasonal adjustment
market_size
market_share
base_demand
FORMULAFinal Demand
base_demand * seasonal
Seasonally adjusted
base_demand
seasonal
final_demand
OUTPUTUnits Forecast
Quarterly Demand (units)
About the creator
The team behind Carlo. We believe everyone deserves tools to reason about risk and uncertainty.
What is Carlo?
Carlo is a visual tool for Monte Carlo simulation. Model uncertainty by dragging probability distributions, connecting them visually, and running thousands of scenarios instantly.