FIRE Advanced
17713
Time-series portfolio model with inflation, expense ratios, and real vs nominal tracking
NOTEModel Overview
🔥 ADVANCED FIRE MODEL
Tracks real vs nominal wealth:
• Inflation erodes purchasing power
• Expense ratio drags returns
• Compare both outputs!
CONSTANTStarting Portfolio
150000
Current investment balance
start
VARIABLEAnnual Contribution
triangular
Yearly savings
contrib
VARIABLENominal Return
normal
Before-inflation market return
nominal_return
VARIABLEInflation
triangular
Annual inflation rate
inflation
CONSTANTExpense Ratio
0.003
Annual fund fees (0.3%)
expense
TIME SERIESNominal Portfolio
prev * (1 + nominal_return - expense) + contrib
Portfolio in future dollars
initial
nominal_return
expense
contrib
nominal_portfolio
FORMULAReal Return
nominal_return - inflation - expense
Inflation-adjusted return
nominal_return
inflation
expense
real_return
TIME SERIESReal Portfolio
prev * (1 + real_return) + contrib
Portfolio in today's dollars
initial
real_return
contrib
real_portfolio
OUTPUTNominal Wealth
Nominal Portfolio ($)
OUTPUTReal Wealth
Real Portfolio (today's $)
NOTEInsight
💡 Compare Nominal vs Real:
• Nominal looks bigger but inflated
• Real = actual purchasing power
• Gap grows over time!
About the creator
The team behind Carlo. We believe everyone deserves tools to reason about risk and uncertainty.
What is Carlo?
Carlo is a visual tool for Monte Carlo simulation. Model uncertainty by dragging probability distributions, connecting them visually, and running thousands of scenarios instantly.