Birdwatching Target Species Sighting Probability Tool
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Estimate the chance of spotting a target bird species on an outing by simulating uncertain abundance, area covered, time active, and your detection skill.
NOTEHow to tune this bird model
Tips to personalize:
- abundance_per_hectare: raise for common species or peak migration, lower for rare species.
- area_searched_ha: increase if you cover more ground or have open sightlines.
- active_fraction: higher at dawn/dusk for many species, lower in midday heat.
- p_detect_given_visible: higher with good optics and calls/IDs, lower in dense canopy.
Limitations: assumes encounters are independent and spread out (Poisson), and it does not model flocking or repeated passes through the same patch.
VARIABLETarget bird abundance per hectare
triangular(0.05, 0.2, 0.6)
Captures uncertainty in how common the target species is in your chosen habitat that day.
abundance_per_hectare
VARIABLEArea you effectively cover hectares
triangular(0.5, 2, 5)
Represents how much habitat you scan during the outing based on route, visibility, and access.
area_searched_ha
VARIABLEFraction of birds active and visible
beta(4, 6)
Accounts for time of day and behavior; fewer birds are detectable when resting or hidden.
active_fraction
VARIABLEDetection chance given a visible bird
beta(6, 4)
Models observer skill, binoculars, foliage density, and how quickly birds move through view.
p_detect_given_visible
FORMULAExpected visible birds encountered
abundance_per_hectare * area_searched_ha * active_fraction
Expected number of target birds that are both present in covered area and active/visible.
abundance_per_hectare
area_searched_ha
active_fraction
expected_visible_encounters
FORMULAExpected detections
expected_visible_encounters * p_detect_given_visible
Expected number of successful detections after factoring in observer and habitat detectability.
expected_visible_encounters
p_detect_given_visible
expected_detections
FORMULASighting probability at least one
1 - exp(-expected_detections)
Poisson approximation for seeing one or more target birds during the outing.
expected_detections
sighting_probability
OUTPUTTarget species sighting probability
Sighting probability 0 to 1
Main result: chance you see at least one of the target species on this outing.
OUTPUTExpected detections
Expected detections count
Helpful for planning; values above 1 generally imply a good likelihood of success.
OUTPUTExpected visible encounters
Expected visible encounters count
Intermediate metric showing how much the outing overlaps with active birds in the area.
What is Carlo?
Carlo is a visual tool for Monte Carlo simulation. Model uncertainty by dragging probability distributions, connecting them visually, and running thousands of scenarios instantly.