Business Revenue Forecast 2026 with Growth Uncertainty
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Estimate 2026 revenue by combining baseline 2025 annual revenue with uncertain 2026 growth to see a range of outcomes and percentiles.
NOTEHow to use
Simple 3-block structure: (1) baseline revenue entering 2026, (2) uncertain 2026 growth, (3) computed 2026 revenue. Edit assumptions and rerun to see downside/upside percentiles.
VARIABLEBaseline 2025 revenue
lognormal(50000000, 10000000)
Annual revenue entering 2026 (USD). Adjust mean/std to match your 2025 run rate and uncertainty.
revenue_2025
VARIABLE2026 growth rate
triangular(-0.05, 0.1, 0.25)
Total year-over-year growth for 2026 (decimal). Example: 0.10 = +10%.
growth_rate_2026
FORMULA2026 revenue
revenue_2025 * (1 + growth_rate_2026)
Computed 2026 annual revenue from baseline revenue and 2026 growth rate.
revenue_2025
growth_rate_2026
revenue_2026
OUTPUTRevenue 2026
Revenue 2026 (USD)
Simulated distribution of 2026 revenue with summary stats (mean, median, P5/P95).
OUTPUTGrowth 2026
Growth rate 2026
Simulated distribution of 2026 growth rate assumptions.
What is Carlo?
Carlo is a visual tool for Monte Carlo simulation. Model uncertainty by dragging probability distributions, connecting them visually, and running thousands of scenarios instantly.