BingoLotto – Variant 3 (Cumulative Sampling)
?Community
00
Uniform(0,1) draw mapped to prize tiers via cumulative probabilities. Edit p_* and payout_* to match the vinstplan.
NOTEHow to calibrate
Replace p_* with (count in tier)/(total tickets) from the official vinstplan for the specific draw/product. Replace payout_* and ticket_price with SEK values.
NOTENote
This is a 4-tier example (no/small/medium/big). If you have more tiers, extend c4,c5,... and nest more if()s.
VARIABLEu
uniform(0, 1)
Single ticket random draw U~Uniform(0,1)
u
CONSTANTp_no_win
0.8
Probability of no prize (edit from vinstplan)
p_no_win
CONSTANTp_small
0.15
Probability of small prize (edit from vinstplan)
p_small
CONSTANTp_medium
0.04
Probability of medium prize (edit from vinstplan)
p_medium
CONSTANTp_big
0.01
Probability of big prize (edit from vinstplan)
p_big
CONSTANTpayout_no_win
0
Payout for no prize
payout_no_win
CONSTANTpayout_small
50
Payout for small prize (edit)
payout_small
CONSTANTpayout_medium
200
Payout for medium prize (edit)
payout_medium
CONSTANTpayout_big
10000
Payout for big prize (edit)
payout_big
CONSTANTticket_price
0
Ticket price (set this to your actual cost)
ticket_price
FORMULAp_sum
p_no_win + p_small + p_medium + p_big
Check probabilities sum to 1
p_no_win
p_small
p_medium
p_big
p_sum
FORMULAc1
p_no_win
Cumulative probability after no-win tier
p_no_win
c1
FORMULAc2
p_no_win + p_small
Cumulative probability after small tier
p_no_win
p_small
c2
FORMULAc3
p_no_win + p_small + p_medium
Cumulative probability after medium tier
p_no_win
p_small
p_medium
c3
FORMULAprize
if(u <= c1, payout_no_win, if(u <= c2, payout_small, if(u <= c3, payout_medium, payout_big)))
Prize payout for one simulated ticket using cumulative thresholds
u
c1
payout_no_win
c2
payout_small
c3
payout_medium
payout_big
prize
FORMULAwin_indicator
prize > 0
1 if any prize, else 0
prize
win_indicator
FORMULAnet_profit
prize - ticket_price
Profit per ticket (payout minus price)
prize
ticket_price
net_profit
OUTPUTWin probability (any prize)
Win probability (any prize)
Estimated chance a single ticket wins anything
OUTPUTExpected payout per ticket
Expected payout per ticket
Average payout per ticket
OUTPUTExpected profit per ticket
Expected profit per ticket
Average profit per ticket (edit ticket_price)
OUTPUTProbabilities sum (should be 1)
Probabilities sum (should be 1)
Sanity check: set p_* so this equals 1
What is Carlo?
Carlo is a visual tool for Monte Carlo simulation. Model uncertainty by dragging probability distributions, connecting them visually, and running thousands of scenarios instantly.