Startup Valuation Calculator with Growth Exit Uncertainty
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Simulate a startup valuation from uncertain current ARR, growth, exit multiple, discount rate, and success probability to estimate a risk adjusted value.
NOTEHow to interpret
This is a simple VC style valuation: simulate ARR growth to an exit year, apply an exit ARR multiple, discount back, then multiply by a probability of a meaningful exit. Adjust inputs to your company and market.
NOTELimitations
Does not model dilution, interim financings, cash burn/runway constraints, or multiple compression tied to growth. For more realism, add dilution and runway failure as additional variables.
VARIABLECurrent ARR
lognormal(2000000, 800000)
Right skew reflects that ARR can surprise upward but cannot go below zero.
current_arr
VARIABLEAnnual growth rate
triangular(0.2, 0.6, 1.2)
Early stage growth is highly uncertain with a most likely but wide upside and downside.
growth_rate
VARIABLEExit revenue multiple
triangular(3, 6, 12)
Market multiples vary by macro conditions, category, and growth profile.
exit_multiple
VARIABLEDiscount rate
triangular(0.25, 0.35, 0.5)
Captures investor required return for risk, illiquidity, and time to exit.
discount_rate
VARIABLEProbability of meaningful exit
beta(3, 7)
Encodes that many startups fail, but some reach an exit; mean here is 30%.
success_prob
CONSTANTYears to exit
5
Typical time horizon for a venture style exit scenario.
years_to_exit
FORMULAExit ARR
current_arr * pow(1 + growth_rate, years_to_exit)
Projected ARR at exit given uncertain growth compounded over the horizon.
current_arr
growth_rate
years_to_exit
exit_arr
FORMULAExit enterprise value
exit_arr * exit_multiple
Terminal value using an ARR multiple as a simple market based exit method.
exit_arr
exit_multiple
exit_ev
FORMULAPresent value of exit
exit_ev / pow(1 + discount_rate, years_to_exit)
Discounts the exit value back to today using the required return.
exit_ev
discount_rate
years_to_exit
present_value
FORMULARisk adjusted valuation
present_value * success_prob
Expected value after accounting for the chance the company reaches a meaningful exit.
present_value
success_prob
risk_adjusted_value
OUTPUTRisk adjusted valuation
Risk adjusted valuation ($)
Use as an expected value anchor; compare P50 and P75 to your target entry valuation.
OUTPUTPresent value of exit
Present value if successful ($)
Value today conditional on success (before applying success probability).
OUTPUTExit enterprise value
Exit enterprise value ($)
Implied enterprise value at exit based on simulated ARR and multiple.
What is Carlo?
Carlo is a visual tool for Monte Carlo simulation. Model uncertainty by dragging probability distributions, connecting them visually, and running thousands of scenarios instantly.