We created Carlo because we were tired of spreadsheets that made complex models feel like punishment, and Monte Carlo tools locked behind enterprise paywalls. We wanted something visual—something that made uncertainty feel intuitive instead of intimidating.
The problem
The decisions that matter most involve uncertainty. How much runway do we have? What's the probability we hit our sales target? When can I retire?
The standard approach—three scenarios in a spreadsheet—isn't how uncertainty actually works. Reality is a continuous range of possibilities, each with different likelihoods. Monte Carlo simulation is the right tool for this, but it's always been hard to use.
What we built instead
Carlo replaces cells and formulas with blocks on a canvas. Each block represents an input, calculation, or output. Connections form automatically when you reference variables. The visual structure is the model.
- See the structure: View dependencies directly instead of hunting through cell references.
- Intuitive distributions: "Between 20 and 40, probably around 30" becomes a triangular distribution. Express uncertainty the way you naturally think about it.
- Instant feedback: Thousands of simulations run in your browser. Change an input, watch the output shift in real time.
- Share and embed: Send interactive models with a link, or embed them in articles and presentations.
Who it's for
Carlo is for anyone making decisions under uncertainty who's willing to be honest about what they don't know.
- Leadership — Stress-test strategy, model scenarios, and make board-ready decisions with confidence.
- Finance — Forecast revenue, model risk, and build shareable analyses for investment decisions.
- Product — Estimate timelines and prioritize using probabilistic outcomes instead of gut feeling.
- Data & Analytics — Build interactive models for market sizing, segmentation, and risk assessment.
- Operations — Model supply chains, capacity planning, and logistics under real-world variability.
- Engineering — Quantify technical trade-offs, tolerances, and system reliability with distributions.
- Project Management — Estimate delivery dates and budgets with honest ranges instead of single-point guesses.
- Education — Teach probability and risk analysis with a visual, hands-on interface.
Explore ready-made models in Discover Models.
What we believe
Visualization unlocks understanding. A formula and a distribution chart contain the same math but lead to different insights.
Speed enables learning. The faster you can iterate, the deeper your intuition becomes.
Sharing spreads better thinking. Every model you share is an opportunity to teach.